quarta-feira, 28 de setembro de 2011

Climate Change and Decision-Making

Michel Rocard, former Prime Minister of France and the current special ambassador for climate change, claims for changes in the decision-making process at the United Nations and the reinforcement of Declaration of Human Duties and Responsibilities.

Decision-making through consensus has not yielded the expected outcomes. The condition for unanimous agreement paralyzed discussions over climate change and politically benefitted countries refraining from committing themselves to the Kyoto Protocol, like the US. Rocard supports the implementation of a democratic process in which the desire of the majority prevails.

The Declaration of Human Duties and Responsibilities lays out juridical-political bases for the imposition of penalties by the international law. Interdependence and co-responsibility of climate changes would legally justify penalties against nations violating treaties and protocols.

A leadership nation needs to rise up during Rio+20. Legitimacy for this role would derive from the urgent need to address climate change globally. The country or group of nations approaching this issue realistically will not only prevent the continuity of inaction but also mitigate the risks of riots in civil society.


In Portuguese:

Michel Rocard, ex-primeiro ministro da França e atual embaixador especial do país para questões polares e de aquecimento global, defende mudanças no processo decisório das Nações Unidas e uma Declaração Internacional dos Deveres do Homem.

O método de decisão por consenso não produziu os resultados esperados. A necessidade de atingir a unanimidade paralisou os avanços nas questões climáticas e apenas serviu aos interesses dos países reticentes em comprometer-se com as clásulas do Protocolo de Quioto, mais especificamente aos Estados Unidos. É preciso retomar um processo democrático no qual o desejo da maioria prevaleça.

Uma Declaração Internacional dos Deveres do Homem serviria como marco jurídico para a justificar a imposição de sanções no direito internacional. A interdependência e a corresponsabilidade das questões envolvendo mudanças climáticas serviriam como arcabouço jurídico para sancionar nações que descumprirem tratados e protocolos.

Algum país precisa liderar o mundo durante a Rio+20. A necessidade urgente de se combater as mudanças climáticas dará legimitidade à nação que propor mudanças no direito internacional com a imposição de obrigações. O realismo no tratamento desse tema evitará a continuidade da inação e diminuirá o risco de insurreições na sociedade civil.

http://www.estadao.com.br/noticias/impresso,conferencia-da-onu-deve-moldar-a-nova-diplomacia,778510,0.htm

quinta-feira, 22 de setembro de 2011

Disaster Risk Reduction

The Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) is a ten-year plan of action (adopted in 2005 by 168 countries) and an instrument for implementing disaster risk reduction created by the United Nations.

Five areas for priority actions are: i) make disaster risk reduction a priority ii) know the risks and take action iii) build understanding and awareness iv) reduce risk v) be prepared and ready to act.

Ban Ki-moon’s, Secretary-General of the United Nations, rationale on the importance of HFA: “Climate change creates more natural hazards, which increase city vulnerability, and potential for disasters. The solution thus is investing is resilient cities by implementing HFA”.

http://www.unisdr.org/files/1217_HFAbrochureEnglish.pdf

The International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) is a framework adopted by UN in 2000. ISDR guides and coordinates partners to reduce disaster losses. It aims to build resilient communities as a condition for sustainable development. UNISDR is the focal point of HFA.

http://www.unisdr.org/files/14044_ISDRbrochure2010.pdf

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) aims to reduce damage caused by natural hazards. This concept and practice reduce disaster risks by analyzing the causes of disasters.

A disaster’s severity depends on how much impact a hazard has on society and the environment. The scale of the impact depends on the choices we make for our lives and for our environment: i) how we grow food ii) build homes iii) type of government iv) financial system v) educational system and content. Each decision and action makes us more vulnerable to disasters – or more resilient to them.

http://www.unisdr.org/who-we-are/what-is-drr

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR): this is a worldwide report on the relation between governance & poverty and DRR.

http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/home/executive.html

segunda-feira, 19 de setembro de 2011

Vulnerability

The study of vulnerability to natural hazards leads to the promotion of adaptive actions and resilience.

W. Neil Adger. “Vulnerability”.

What is disaster?

Disaster must be analyzed through the lenses of i) hazards, ii) vulnerability, and iii) risks.
Hazard is the process, the potential harm of an event.
Vulnerability is the degree of the impact of hazards on social processes and defined by i) poverty ii) political powerless iii) physical weaknesses and iv) isolation.
And disaster risk is a function of i) magnitude ii) potential occurrence iii) frequencies iv) speed of onset v) spatial extent vi) people’s susceptibility to loss, injury, and death.

DR = H x V
DR: Disaster Risk
H: Hazards
V: Vulnerability

Protective actions (C) is designed to counteract DR. The larger C is, the less DR becomes.
DR = H [ V/C – M ]
M: Mitigation by preventive action and social protection.

Ben Wisner, JC Gaillard, and Ilan Kelman. “Handbook of Hazard and Disaster Risk”. London: Routledge, 2011, in press.