Climate Change and Decision-Making

Michel Rocard, former Prime Minister of France and the current special ambassador for climate change, claims for changes in the decision-making process at the United Nations and the reinforcement of Declaration of Human Duties and Responsibilities.

Decision-making through consensus has not yielded the expected outcomes. The condition for unanimous agreement paralyzed discussions over climate change and politically benefitted countries refraining from committing themselves to the Kyoto Protocol, like the US. Rocard supports the implementation of a democratic process in which the desire of the majority prevails.

The Declaration of Human Duties and Responsibilities lays out juridical-political bases for the imposition of penalties by the international law. Interdependence and co-responsibility of climate changes would legally justify penalties against nations violating treaties and protocols.

A leadership nation needs to rise up during Rio+20. Legitimacy for this role would derive from the urgent need to address climate change globally. The country or group of nations approaching this issue realistically will not only prevent the continuity of inaction but also mitigate the risks of riots in civil society.

In Portuguese:

Michel Rocard, ex-primeiro ministro da França e atual embaixador especial do país para questões polares e de aquecimento global, defende mudanças no processo decisório das Nações Unidas e uma Declaração Internacional dos Deveres do Homem.

O método de decisão por consenso não produziu os resultados esperados. A necessidade de atingir a unanimidade paralisou os avanços nas questões climáticas e apenas serviu aos interesses dos países reticentes em comprometer-se com as clásulas do Protocolo de Quioto, mais especificamente aos Estados Unidos. É preciso retomar um processo democrático no qual o desejo da maioria prevaleça.

Uma Declaração Internacional dos Deveres do Homem serviria como marco jurídico para a justificar a imposição de sanções no direito internacional. A interdependência e a corresponsabilidade das questões envolvendo mudanças climáticas serviriam como arcabouço jurídico para sancionar nações que descumprirem tratados e protocolos.

Algum país precisa liderar o mundo durante a Rio+20. A necessidade urgente de se combater as mudanças climáticas dará legimitidade à nação que propor mudanças no direito internacional com a imposição de obrigações. O realismo no tratamento desse tema evitará a continuidade da inação e diminuirá o risco de insurreições na sociedade civil.

http://www.estadao.com.br/noticias/impresso,conferencia-da-onu-deve-moldar-a-nova-diplomacia,778510,0.htm

System Thinking

Edmonton’s public school system became a worldwide role model by asking decision-makers, school directors, and union leaders the right questions; thus, helping them visualize priorities, embrace change, serve better, and improve performance.

http://www.hawaiibusiness.com/Hawaii-Business/May-2010/Best-School-System-in-North-America/

Decision-Making and Resouce Allocation

Paul Posner argues in "The Persistence of Reform" that allocation of limited resources is the most important decision that political leaders have to make every year.

I would add that besides the allocation of resources, it is necessary that public officials be able to design roadmaps and monitoring systems to ensure that public money has been used efficiently and appropriately by state agencies to reach desired social outputs and outcomes.

Resource is useless if one does not know how to utilize it accordingly.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2008.01966.x/abstract

Testimony and Policy-Making

Testifying is the opportunity that constituents enjoy to voice their concerns during legislature process. Both writing and oral deliveries must be concise, logical, and passionate.

Enlisted arguments for or against a bill must include facts, figures, quotation from authority as well as lessons learned and best practices from other localities.

During oral delivery, it is important to follow protocol, maintain eye contact, stick to time allotted, conclude summarizing main ideas, and only answer questions that one is sure about. Saying “I do not know but will get back to you as soon as I find this information” is highly recommended to avoid uncertainty and contradictions.

Delivering testimonies does not only represent high civic engagement but mainly an instrument that constituents should make use of to help policy-makers make informed decisions and ensure that the enforcement of public policies will benefit the collectivity.

More on testimony and legislature process can be watched on the funny videos below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1T75jBYeCs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEJL2Uuv-oQ

Lobby and Policy-Making

I have recently had a class about lobbying.

Honestly, my shallow and previous understanding of this activity was to be less community and more “money-oriented”.

Now, I still suspect that money - or "gift exchange"- plays an important role throughout legislature processes but also admit the importance of this activity to reinforce democratic values.

Lobby is commonly defined as having someone advocating a given cause among policy and decision-makers.

Lobbyists are hired based on their procedural knowledge, language ability, and relationships cultivated.

Private companies, for instance, pay them to mitigate damage that a bill may have on profit.

Non-governmental organizations rely on lobbyists to reach legislators by providing factual information on a certain issue. This initiative has proven to be more persuasive than presenting thousands of lists with millions of signatures of angry constituents.

The main point, however, to appreciate the work done by lobbyists is the provision of accurate figures that they introduce to policy-makers in the process of turning bills into laws.

Even well-prepared and hard worker representatives cannot be familiar with every topic they are required to read and vote. Lobbyists, from both sides – in favor and against a given bill – are the ones that decision-makers expect to hear in straightforward testimonies the advantages and disadvantages of a bill from different groups’ standpoints.

As legislators receive organized information, they are able to analyze more critically the issue on display and writing legal compositions that later on will feature more balance among the groups mostly affected by this regulation whenever enforcement is required.

Lobby, therefore, constitutes an activity that the more it is carried out by competent professionals, the more informed decisions public authorities make, and the more communities and other groups enjoy rights protected by the rule of law.

PS. Lobbyists also play an important role in helping local leaders to organize the social network of their communities. They also ensure that decision and policy-makers hear and address collective concerns in a timely manner.

Economics and Decision-Making

"Reference Class-Forecasting" is a model created by Daniel Kanehman, 2002 Nobel prize awardee for studies on Behavioral Economics.

Like the concepts learned in Economic Module, Kanehman's methodology help public administrators make better decisions by providing tools to correct false predictions generated by overoptimism.

To come up with a down-to-earth forecast, one has to go through five steps.

First, identify a similar example and then compare similarities and differences of every variable.

Second, organize the outcomes of this example - reference - by distributing extremes, median, and clusters.

Third, make predictions of your venture - this is the time when overoptimism usually takes over - and place them in the reference outcome distribution.

Fourth, create a forecast scale for various events.

Fifth, place your prediction in the scale created and adjust irrationality in order to work based on and towards realistic objectives.

More about this decision-making process methodolgy at:
http://hbswk.hbs.edu/archive/3630.html