segunda-feira, 12 de dezembro de 2011

Limits to Growth?

Great point, Carly, in highlighting contradictions between resource scarcity and current patterns of economic growth. Nonetheless, we should be a bit careful about pointing out demographics as a direct cause of environmental degradation. If we keep going along with this rationale we risk strengthening deep-rooted judgments and prejudices fairly inconsistent to what is actually happening on the ground.

Densely populated areas or high rates of population growth do not necessarily mean environmental degradation. Japanese islands are one of the most populated areas worldwide and relatively to its total area consist of one of the greenest places on Earth. The underprivileged tribal group of the Aetas, in the Philippines, however, is quickly going into extinction. They have long been scattered around a vast natural area in Luzon but never enjoyed the same access to material opportunities and living standards than Shinjuku commuters.

Technology and human capital define growth. The more access people have to formal and technical education, the higher the chances of developing and using technology to produce wealth responsibly over time. Technology means efficiency, that is, generating more or same with the same or less amount of inputs. This is what Japanese policymakers have historically been designing to build a resilient nation. And this what the discriminated Negritos have not been legally receiving from Filipino national planners. In addition, international demographic statistics has shown that population growth has consistently been slowing down especially among vulnerable populations hit by residual rates of economic progress.

As well as overpopulation, overconsumption is not a realistic approach to deter environmental degradation. On the contrary, consumption is the foundation of a better life. This model explains how Norway has presented the highest rates of living standards in international ranks. This model functions because people earn a lot and spend a lot. The challenge here is setting up a system that operates not exporting externalities and creates positive environmental feedbacks within closed economic loops. The difficulty here is replicating a local model of a low-intensive energy environmentally-minded economic structure on a contentious and highly sensitive international arena. Fewer people, less consumption and mainly localism are not going to make any of us better off -- nor preserve natural resources.

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