Climate Change and Food Security in Brazil

Climate change directly impacts food security. The objective of this paper is to identify institutional mechanisms that address climate change as well as availability and access to essential crops. The scope is the North and the Northeast of Brazil, since these are the macro-regions most vulnerable to the effects of climate change in this country, whose institutional mechanisms has been internationally recognized as effective tools to tackle food issues in the face of climate change.

This paper is divided into four parts. The first establishes the relation between climate change and food security in general terms. The second narrows down the topic to Brazil’s context. The third deals with regional policies addressing food security in the North of Brazil, especially in the Amazon region. The fourth explains how the poorest part of this country, the Northeast, has addressed the effects of climate change from an institutional standpoint.

First Part - Climate Change and Food Security

Changes in climate are expected to bring greater levels of climate variability and to worsen the social and economic stresses that the world’s poor live with (Tompkins, 2008). The growing amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere has melted polar ice caps, shifted rainfall patterns, accelerated desertification and droughts, and increased the number of diseases (Domingues, 2008). Defining these uncertainties is extremely important in the process of designing food security policies.

Food security is “when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (Chakraborty, 2011). Even though an increasing number of carbon dioxide emissions increases crop biomass and grain yield in the short term -- causing a phenomenon known as “the fertilization effect”, especially in subtropical areas -- there is emerging evidence and current observations of reduced grain yield from high-temperature and water limitations in tropical areas, making a wholesale increase in the long term unlikely (Chakraborty, 2011). Also, the impacts of plant diseases likely minimize or reverse any benefit from the carbon dioxide fertilization effect. Nevertheless, grain production has doubled over the last forty years as a consequence of changes in plant protection and other agricultural technology, including a 15-20-fold increase in pesticide worldwide (Chakraborty, 2011). Despite this, the overall proportion of crop losses has increased during this period and an excessive use of insecticides has increased pest outbreaks and losses in croplands. As farmers respond to challenges of securing sufficient, safe and nutritious food for the ever-expanding human population under changing climate, pesticide usage is expected to increase (Chakraborty, 2011).

Food Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that 1.02 billion people went hungry in 2009 -- the highest ever level of world hunger. The constraints on food security are declining investment in agriculture, land degradation, urban expansion, conversion of crops and croplands into non-food production. These constraints are expected to reduce the total global cropping area in 8-20% by 2050 (Chakraborty, 2011). In addition to pesticides and cropland, commodities’ prices have been greatly affected by climate change. Commodities’ prices are defined by intersectoral relationships between oil production, financial markets, Asian countries’ demand, and the increased production of biodiesel (Wilkinson, 2010). In this context, the International Food Policy Research (IFPRI) has conducted a study on different climate models and results showed a general decrease in the growth rate of agribusiness production. If these numbers prove to be right, developing countries will be the most affected, especially in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (Abramovay, 2010).

Countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America have designed national policies related to food security to offset the losses of crop production, especially due to climate change (Pretty, 2003). In Uganda, India, and Brazil, for example, food security policies are expected to sustain economic growth with sustainable demand and stability; improve income distribution and quality of life; restrain inflation; promote sustainable expansion of internal market; invest in education; provide sanitary conditions; reduce public deficits; and redefine the role of the state (Zibetti, 2002; Pretty, 2003). Specifically, it is necessary agrarian and land reforms as well as agro-industrial, scientific, and technological policies at the regional and national levels (Zibetti, 2002).

The capacity to adapt to climate change relies on wealth, technology, education, information, capacity, infrastructure, resource accessibility, and management. Adaptation policies are necessary to avoid species migration and the extinction of fauna and flora, which leads to priceless losses of genetic patrimony. The contemporary society also needs to adapt to shifts on sea currents affecting entire food chains in the oceans, and the strengthening of parasites resulting in the diminishment of species (Conrado, 2000). Climate change also modifies soils, depletes and salinizes portable water, and forces millions of people to live in and flee from disaster-prone areas. The factors that intensify vulnerability to climate-related catastrophes are a combination of population growth, poverty, and environmental degradation. A possible solution is creating impact indicators and natural monitoring systems over tree blossom and seed production. Indicators like these ones alert planners about the risks, costs, and necessary planning to tackle climate change accordingly. In the agriculture sector, it is necessary to improve the eco-efficiency of cultures, promote adequate soil management, prioritize native seeds, incentivize agro-ecology, reduce the number of mono crops, and invest in the formation of rural leaders (Conrado, 2000). Water scarcity also poses a formidable challenge to increase food production by 50% to meet the projected demand of the world’s population by 2050 (Chakraborty, 2011). Climate change, therefore, will make conditions even more difficult by increasing the uncertainty over the availability of water for irrigation and the risk -- magnitude, extent, and frequency -- of other hazards over food security, especially in developing countries.

Second Part – Food Security in Brazil

Context

Climate change directly impacts food security in Brazil. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that climate change has caused the following impacts: desertification in the Amazon, biodiversity loss, water scarcity, agriculture and cattle-raising losses, and crop deployment (Domingues, 2008). FAO and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released in 2005 three reports on the projections over world agricultural production. This study points out Brazil as a major global player in agribusiness by 2016. In 2005, Brazil became the third largest exporter of food just behind the United States and Canada (Lourenço, 2008). In 2008, the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA) assessed the impacts of global warming on the main crops in Brazil over the next decades. This study showed that grain harvest losses are estimated to be around US$ 4 billion by 2020 and US$ 9 billion by 2070 (Domingues, 2008). Climate change also dislocates croplands since farmers seek suitable climate conditions for their crops. Manioc, for instance, is expected to disappear from arid areas. Coffee will no longer be concentrated in the Southeast. The South will be hosting manioc, coffee, and sugar-cane, which will substitute soybean mainly due to water stress. It is expected that sugar-cane will spread all over the country doubling its area size (Domingues, 2008). Crop deployment will affect many economic sectors. The production cost of agriculture and cattle-raising will increase as well as the cost of inputs for householders. Econometric studies ex-post are unable to identify and assess these phenomena because the dynamism of regional economic variables are determined by cyclical fluctuation and structural factors like demographics and public policies (Domingues, 2008). In addition, lack of studies on these phenomena prevents us from adopting ex-post models to adequately estimate future impacts. The model that should be used, therefore, is ex-ante. These analyses show how climate change effects amplify and neutralize economic inter-relationships through a Computable General Equilibrium (EGC) model. Examples of EGC in public agencies are mitigation policies and carbon taxes (Domingues, 2008).

Institutional Structure

Brazilian leaders have set up institutional platforms to address the challenges of food security. In the context of building a “Strategic State” -- which is a national project in which the State is in charge of establishing an integrated vision encompassing values and aspirations over land --, the government has promoted agrarian reforms and agricultural policies for the agribusiness, food production chains, agro-industries, family agriculture programs, and alternative uses of rural properties. Officials have tried to speed up this process by redistributing land, increasing food productivity, fostering job creation, rising living standards and income levels. In the context of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the country has attempted to reduce agricultural subsidies. In terms of cropland, Brazil has the potential to expand its agricultural frontier while increasing the number of job opportunities. Most of Brazil’s land structure -- little over 60% -- is comprised of very small landholdings. The percentage of the number of people working in these very small croplands is almost half of the total number of people working in the agriculture sector in the country; however, very small landholdings represent only 8% of the total agricultural area (Zibetti, 2002). These numbers show the importance of very small landholding cropland for the Brazilian economy and the extreme concentration of land in the national land structure.

The National Council for Food and Nutrition Security (CONSEA) represents a model of governance guided by effective participation by civil society. Described as a tool for communication between the government and citizens, CONSEA is an advisory body to the president on policies and general guidelines for food and nutrition security. Composed of fifty four representatives, two-thirds from civil society and the private sector and one-third from the federal government, CONSEA’s members are labor unions, business associations, the food industry, church groups, professional associations, academics, and non-governmental organizations representing family farmers, indigenous communities, and others. The government representatives come from nineteen different federal ministries and special secretariats. Despite such diversity of interests, since 2003 CONSEA has put forward a number of proposals and initiatives, such as the increase in allowances for the federal School Meals Program and the creation of the Food Procurement Program (PAA), which promotes direct crop and milk purchases by the government for building food stocks -- and regulating prices -- and to be used in government food program such as School Meals or food banks. Small farmers earn up to US$2,000 per year through PAA. But the Council’s most significant accomplishment so far has been the elaboration of the National Law on Food and Nutrition Security (LOSAN), passed by the Brazilian Congress in 2006. Article 1 of this law establishes definitions, principles, guidelines, objectives and composition of the National System for Food and Nutrition Security -- SISAN -- through which the State, with the participation of organized civil society, will formulate and implement policies, plans, programs and actions towards ensuring the human right to adequate food. For the first time the right to food is institutionalized as a matter of public policy and an obligation of the state in this country. LOSAN also strengthened CONSEA, since it establishes the national council as a permanent state institution, with an elected president from civil society and the mandate to develop programs for SISAN (Rocha, 2009).

Brazilian agriculture specialists have worked to reduce the country’s vulnerability to climate change. This is done by identifying causes, defining agricultural scenarios, and coordinating research projects. This coordination is led by the Center of Meteorological and Climate Research Applied to Agriculture (CEPAGRI), EMBRAPA, and Agritempo -- this is a network of agro-meteorological information. This institutional collaboration creates a database and models that define agricultural scenarios at the national level. The two projects carried out by these institutions are Brazil’s Agricultural Zoning and Climate Risks Zoning, which focuses on family agriculture, biofuels, and pasture. The scenarios designed have considered temperature increases of 1, 3, and 5.8 degrees Celsius and of rainfall of 5, 10, and 15%. These scenarios were simulated in a homogeneous way for the entire country and disregarded any technological evolution in the management of cultures and genetic enhancement as well as plant adaptation to new conditions. The cultures assessed were soybean, corn, rice, and beans (Pellegrino, 2007).

Biofuels

The production of biofuels is related to food security. It is largely assumed that biomass cultivation for biofuels has gradually destroyed native forests (Sachs, 2007). Biofuel Watch -- a British non-governmental organization and -- Lester Brown are voices supporting this argument. Hunger, however, is not a direct result of lack of food but derives from low income. In addition, the calculus of cultivable land areas for biofuels cannot be done by juxtaposing productive chains and by the sum of assigned areas but by seeking integrated food production systems and adapting energy sources for various biomes (Sachs, 2007). Arguments in favor of biofuels are that vegetable residual or co-products become basic input for anew cyclical production; areas utilized for biomass are the degraded and marginalized ones; plants used are rustic; new oleaginous plants featuring high level of energy are expected to surge increasing the average productivity per hectare of food cultures and as a result reduce the amount of necessary areas for production; and forests and agro-forestry systems expand the production of cellulosic ethanol since reforestation increases production (Sachs, 2007). Thus, it is important to assess the natural limits of biofuel production by respecting the double imperative of the inviolability of native forests and of the obligation to ensure food security for everyone. These measures are met by integrating small farmers into productive chains through public policies and organizing cooperatives for the commercialization and industrialization of products (Sachs, 2007). It is important to note the cross effect of biofuel and food since both rely on the same raw material. Certification of exported products also ensures the respect for ecological and social norms. The establishment of a regulatory agency would be able to intervene in the negotiation with foreign investors and assess projects from social, environmental, and economic criteria and also to promote ecological zoning (Sachs, 2007). The emphasis, though, should be on food and energy integrated systems. The government will accomplish so by increasing investments in research institutions like EMBRAPA. Finally, it is necessary to avoid the over appreciation of the exchange rate to guarantee the competitive price of Brazilian commodities in foreign markets (Sachs, 2007).

Third Part – The Amazon

International and national mechanisms have attempted to mitigate the effects of climate change on the Amazon. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) and Afforestation and Reforestation (A/R) are mitigation instruments to make forests worth more alive than dead by providing monetary incentives to maintain forests standing (Trivedi, 2009). In 2005, the Amazon faced a large drought. The Southwestern and Western portions experienced one of their worst droughts in sixty years, compounded by extensive forest fires. The causes appeared to be warmer global temperatures and lower rainfall. The consequences were lower water levels in the rivers; drained floodplain lakes and streams; and isolation of hundreds of riverine villages and communities (Trivedi, 2009). REDD offers incentives to countries to reduce their deforestation relative to a historical reference level calculated from their deforestation rate in a recent snapshot of time. It operates at the national level and link compensation to a country’s success in reducing recent deforestation rates. The concern over this mechanism is that it targets only a subset of countries and connects incentives to annual deforested areas, which may inadvertently push deforestation to other areas (Trivedi, 2009).

Deforestation in the Amazon is driven primarily by economic profitability in the forms of agricultural expansion and logging, governance weaknesses because of lenient law enforcement; and a deterministic poverty cycle. In the Brazilian Amazon, largely populated by indigenous groups, small-scale farmers are estimated to account for about one-fifth of deforestation. At the international level, REDD compensates developing nations for the opportunity cost of conservation; the costs of agricultural intensification and the efforts in certifying logging and agribusiness; and management costs entailed in enforcement and monitoring at the frontier. Innovative financial mechanisms include financial bonds, insurance premiums, microcredit and patient capital, and eco-certification. REDD objective is to establish an “eco-utility” framework to value forests in equal measure for climate change mitigation and adaptation (Trivedi, 2009).

At the local level, Computable General Equilibrium (EGC) models provide a framework to determine how changes in policies and technology affect deforestation. Such model can take into account a wide range of indicators and variables in calculating the magnitude of the effects of these forces on deforestation (Angelsen, 2001). EGC considers technological change in agriculture outside the Amazon; rising costs in transportation; investments in infrastructure; changes in the real exchange rate; macroeconomic policies, credit, and fiscal subsidies; and population growth (Angelsen, 2001). This model assumes that land has qualitative characteristics, thus divides it into: forested land, arable land, and grassland and pasture. The limitation of this model is the assumption on average deforestation rates which makes it a static model whose results represent the impact of poverty experiments in a timeless world (Angelsen, 2001).

Computable General Equilibrium models are complemented by participatory policymaking processes (Angelsen, 2001). However, public policies emerging from these procedures constitute in very challenging issues. Several factors shape public policies in the Amazon. Some of them are population growth; human development index; urban network and size of rural population; local and regional infrastructure; land conflicts -- access and entitlements --; extensive model of exploration and agribusiness; conservation of natural resources and biodiversity; productivity of family agriculture; indigenous people and sustainable practice; and reduction of social inequalities (Schröder, 2010).

Specifically to food security, the current rate of grain production in the Amazon must change. The current rate of grain and cattle-raising production growth is not sustainable and thus it is necessary to reduce the number of potential products deriving from environmental assets. Some instruments already implemented are the enactment of a moratorium over soybean production (Schröder, 2011). Customers are committed not to buy soybean from deforested areas. Another instrument is adjusting the conduct of cattle-raising ranchers, which is a partial answer to the complexity of agriculture and livestock industry goods coming from this region. The objective is to avoid the acquisition of cow meat supplied by farms incurring in socio-environmental irregularities and to promote state programs fostering cattle-raising modernization as well as the recuperation of degraded areas and rural property relisting (Schröder, 2010).

Family agriculture is the main unit of production in the Amazon. Over 85% of family units occupy 13% of the total area. The reasons for the continuation of this social group are a historical process of unchecked economic growth and consolidation of social gathering groups, and new limits opened up by colonization resulting from the expansion of agricultural frontiers and investments in infrastructure (Schröder, 2011). State governments have tried to streamline the production of the family unit by helping them conserve natural resources based on indigenous and traditional knowledge. Officials have designed specific policies for family agriculture since 1990 to address food security, poverty, income generation, and value-added. These policies have been reviewed over time to promote social mobility, insertion into productive process, and efficient and organized commerce structures (Schröder, 2011). The promotion of the diversity of the rural space in the Amazon has had the support of the National Program to Strengthen Family Farming (PRONAF) which is coordinated by the Ministry of Agrarian Development (MDA). PRONAF promotes family agriculture through programs of credits for investments and costs. MDA articulates the Technical Assistance and Rural Extension (ATER) program throughout the national territory. The growth rate of families benefitting from ATER increased 788% from 2003 and 2009. This is a reflection of 1082% of increased investments in this program during the same period (Schröder, 2010).

Other programs and institutions have also contributed to the issue of food security in the Amazon. In 2010, it was signed a National Policy on Technical Assistance and Rural Extension for Family Agriculture and Agrarian Reform (PNATER). The goal of this program is promoting the continuity of ATER’s services with agility and without interruption to ensure the effectiveness of implementation and accountability. PNATER greatly helped simplify administrative procedures (Schröder, 2010). EMBRAPA is another important institution in the Amazon. It promotes the availability of technology for family agriculture and technical assistance to farmers. Partnering with PRONAF, EMBRAPA has created a credit line that makes it possible to invest in infrastructure and seek conditions to increase family agriculture productivity through research integration and technical assistance (Schröder, 2011). Another plan is the Harvest Plan for Family Agriculture. This program ensured commercialization and assigned a new market for family production -- School Meals Program. A federal law required that 30% of all public money assigned to School Meals Programs must be used to buy products from family agriculture (Schröder, 2010). Two other programs are the National Plan for Promoting Socio-Biodiversity Chains (PNPPs), which aims to promote conservation and the sustainable use of biodiversity, and Policies of Guaranteed Minimum Prices (Schröder, 2010). MDA, for its part, concentrates on the actions of credit, commercialization, technical assistance, inputs, besides land regularization, and infrastructure. The main problems of these regional programs are the challenges for establishing direct communication and adapting public policies to the particularities of the Amazon producers (Schröder, 2010). To successfully do so, it is necessary to strengthen the articulation between research, rural extension, credit, and different sustainable sectors; advance the process of organization and land regulation; ameliorate institutional, juridical, and budget mechanisms; and define and implement indicators and methodologies for the monitoring of results (Schröder, 2010).

Fourth Part – the Northeast

In Brazil, the impacts of climate change are more visible in the dry areas. The Northeast region hosts the most vulnerable population in the country and its gross development product is usually half of the national average. It occupies 18% of the country’s territory, features fragile fauna and flora, an irregular distribution of rain, intermittent rivers, and a high climatic variation. It comprises nine states located at the heart of the region’s infamous “polygon of drought”. Most of its population is made up of Black and indigenous groups (Santos, 2008).

The process of desertification is intensified by poverty and vice-verse. The Northeast features three types of droughts: annual, which lasts seven to eight months every year; seasonal, which lasts one-two years in cycles of thirteen years; and extended, which lasts over three years. El Niño has great influence on the occurrences of these droughts. The federal and state governments have established statistical and dynamic forecasts to mitigate the negative impacts of these extreme events. The long-term monitoring system aims to alleviate the effects of climate change, and promote adaptation and mitigation policies to countermeasure the effects of droughts (Santos, 2008).

The state of Ceará, for instance, has prepared its institutions to deal with the effects of climate change. State agencies are undergoing political and socio-economic change processes. These changes have happened because of decision-making processes based on social indicators and participatory policymaking (Tompkins, 2008). The main aspects of these changes are the democratization of decision-making; decentralization; environmental sustainability; societal participation; stakeholder-driven organizations supporting agencies’ missions; and reform of networks which have provided financial, human, and political support for domestic and international initiatives (Tompkins, 2008). Public policies have integrated disaster response into social and economic policy process and long-term commitment to investments in disaster risk reduction and in collaborative learning-based approach to managing risk. The key factor is managing entrenched poverty and exclusion in hazard-prone areas (Tompkins, 2008).

Climate change impacts the Northeast’s economy. The EGC multi-regional model is represented by a set of linear equations and solutions obtained in the form of growth rate. This multi-regional bottom-up model features national results based on the aggregation of state results. This model simulates policies that have an impact over specific prices and create a system for the regional mobility of factors between regions and sectors. The configuration of this model includes thirty sectors in each of the twenty-seven regions; presents inter-state commercial matrixes for each product; and flows of internal and external commerce. These EMBRAPA’s scenarios include eight crops -- rice, beans, corn, cotton, manioc, soy, sugar-cane, and sunflower. The analysis takes into account production rate and its relation with profitability and capital deployment. It also measures the variation of land supply. These simulations encompassed nine quinquenniums from 2005 to 2050. The findings of these scenarios have led to conclude that the regional gross domestic production is negative in terms of employment, intra-migration, input-output relation, and urban infrastructure services in the Northeast (Domingues, 2008).

Fifth Part – Conclusion

This paper studies the relation between climate change and food security in two macro-regions of Brazil. Institutional frameworks served as platforms to analyze problems emerging from this cause-effect relationship. Even though Brazilian national and regional programs have been successful in addressing food security issues intensified by increasing threats imposed by climate change. The country still faces pressing challenges on its food and nutrition policies.

The first challenge is on the supply side. It is necessary more innovative policies combining basic safety-net and well-targeted mechanisms with structural-change components. Cash transfer programs combined with food policies are not meant only to alleviate income poverty but mainly to break the intergenerational transmission of poverty. Long-term structural changes founded on investments in human capital through education and health break this vicious cycle.

The second challenge is on the demand side. Lack of information and knowledge among small-scale farmers has prevented them from taking full advantage of recent government agricultural programs. Policies to support small-scale family farmers have the same double objective of providing short-term support in conjunction with long-term structural changes. These, however, cannot be realized without further resources geared to farmers’ capacity in gathering information; market-functioning and general education; and forming associations and cooperatives.

The third challenge is in the implementation process. The effectiveness of social councils in governance for food and nutrition security has been undermined by the lack of appropriate training and education among potential representatives from civil society. Local patronage and corruption are also obstacles to effective participatory governance in many municipalities.

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